Alik Bakhshi
With this article, I predicted a year
and a half ago that Russia would inevitably attack Ukraine in 2022.
War Instead of Elections
In
anticipation of the upcoming elections, Putin organized massive military
exercises along the entire perimeter of the Ukrainian border, including the
Belarusian-Ukrainian one. Fully aware of the potential defeat of his party in
the elections and taking into account his declining popularity among the
people, the security officer could easily interrupt the elections by starting a
war with Ukraine. It seems the two dictators have decided that war is the
surest way to maintain their power. Putin certainly doesn't want a repeat of
the Belarusian election failure in Russia, and in such a case, there's nothing
better than war.
Furthermore,
war would finally complete the plan, begun in 2014, to return Ukraine to the
Russian Empire and resolve the Transnistria issue. Even if he fails to seize
all of Ukraine, Putin will try to open a corridor to Moldova by capturing
Odessa, cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea entirely.
Due to
legislative and democratic procedures, the West will not be able to immediately
agree on a joint response to this brazen invasion. The advantages of
totalitarian rule over democracy will be evident. However, in the long term,
Russia's defeat is inevitable; the only pity is that many people will fall
victim to Putin's gamble.
September
15, 2021
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