Alik Bakhshi
" Turkish Party" to "Grand Chessboard",
middlegame
Thus, the "Turkish
Party" played out Tayyip Erdogan
(http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/10334.html), crept to the middlegame. As
befits in the middlegame, designated the main strategic objectives. However,
there is nothing new - traditionally, if you take into account the historical
fact that, of all wars, the given Russia the largest number of accounts for
Turkey, then again the main Russian political plans tied to the Turkish area.
It is important to note that the Russian empire against Turkey has always
supported the aggressor. Nothing has changed during the stay of the Soviet
Union. So during the Second World War, namely in November 1940, when conducted
difficult negotiations with Hitler to join the Soviet Union in the Pact axis
(Germany, Italy, Japan), Stalin gave consent, but on the condition that
Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey will enter in the sphere of interests of the
Kremlin. However, later, Stalin somewhat retreated in their demands and asked
to give to the slaughter Soviet Union only Bulgaria and Turkey, but it was too
late, Hitler had already begun to develop "Barbarossa" plan (see
"Fatal mistakes of Stalin, who saved the world» (http:. / /samlib.ru/editors/b/bahshi_a/alikbahshi-34.shtml).
The German invasion
of the USSR temporarily pushed territorial claims to Turkey, but Stalin was
persistent and repeatedly raised the "Turkish question" at the Tehran
Conference in 1943 and in 1944 during negotiations with Churchill in Moscow.
After the war, in June 1945 the Turkish ambassador in Moscow issued an
ultimatum was asked to sign a friendship treaty, which provided for the
construction of Soviet naval bases in the Straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles,
and the transfer of large parts of the eastern part of Turkey.
http://cont.ws/post/107632
Stalin considered control
over the Black Sea straits primary geopolitical challenge, so the summer of
1945 at the insistence of the Soviet delegation, "Turkish question"
was included in the agenda of the Potsdam Conference. Then, Truman and
Churchill unanimously rejected the blatant, in fact, Moscow's territorial
claims. But Stalin did not reckon with their opinion and continued the policy
of pressure on Turkey. He could not come to terms with the fact that all along
the Soviet border from the Baltic to the Black Sea, Turkey was the only country
not fallen into Moscow's sphere of influence. Stalin thought that this was the
opportune moment to take advantage of the friendly allied relations with the
United States and Great Britain, as well as the increased power of the post-war
Soviet Union, to finally carry out long-held dream to capture the Russian Black
Sea straits. This caused a sobering Western politicians, there is the famous
"Long Telegram" of the American Ambassador in Moscow John. Kennan of
22 February 1946, in which he warns Washington about the expansionist ambitions
of Moscow and advises refers to the Soviet Union, not as an ally but as an
enemy. The final rejection of the blind policy of Roosevelt, Stalin fully trust
and skeptical about the constant warnings of Churchill accomplished after the
famous prophetic Churchill's Fulton speech March 5, 1946. Churchill said
directly that Soviet Russia "wants to disrupt the fruits of victory, and
completely using its power to publicize its doctrine." There he said:
"Turkey and Persia are deeply concerned and are concerned about the claims
made on them, and the pressures to which they are subjected by the government
of Moscow." http://www.coldwar.ru/churchill/fulton.php
Immensely postwar
Moscow's demands in the territorial acquisitions, besides those already
acquired during the war (Tyva, Prussia, a significant part of eastern Poland,
southern Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands), - another fatal mistake of Stalin.
The threat of the
loss of sovereignty and territorial integrity was the cause of Turkey's
accession to NATO, which protect the country against the encroachments of the
Soviet Union and its successor no less aggressive today Putin's Russia, which
invaded Syria under the pretext of fighting Islamic terrorism and with the
caveat "We in Syria do not do the decision of any special tasks in
addition to the declared (fight against terrorism), where we protect our
national interests "- Munich speech Medvedev (http://www.rbc.ru/politics/13/02/2016/56bf31bd9a79475a1fcea255).
As for the
protection of national interests Medvedev is absolutely right. The fact that in
the Russian Empire, many colonial peoples are Muslims, and it is possible that
they do not follow the Chechen scenario. In this case, Moscow under the pretext
of the fight against Islamic terrorists will ruthlessly suppress the aspiration
of peoples to freedom, as has happened in Chechnya. Raising the fight against
international Islamic terrorism to the rank of top priority, interested parties
themselves use terrorism for all-out war of terror decisions purely political
purposes. In fact, international terrorism slot is located behind the walls of
the Kremlin (1). That inmate security officer Putin, the Kremlin's treacherous
terrorist plans are developed, such as a series of undermining buildings in
Moscow and Volgodonsk, in order to pass off as terrorist acts by Chechen
fighters to the second Chechen war, leaning all the power of a huge empire of
the paucity of the Chechen people. Return rebellious people, or rather, what
remains of it, in the bosom of the empire and the triumph to come to the
presidential election was the primary task of Putin. It Kremlin revanchist
responsible for the attack on Georgia and Ukraine, annexing part of the
territory of these countries. By freezing the war with Ukraine, Putin gets
involved in Middle Eastern affairs, where in addition to the fight against
Islamic terrorists, he is going to protect the interests of Russia and more, as
it follows from the Munich speech Medvedev.
What are the
specific interests of Russia, Putin has found in Syria? If the war with Georgia
and Ukraine can be explained by the desire of Putin to restore the empire in
the borders of the Soviet Union, the collapse of which he regrets, that of
military invasion Russia to Syria, in my opinion, hiding some other, deeper
political reasons, rather than just the intention to help the dictator Assad in
his struggle with the opposition and the Islamists of LIH. It was not in vain
Medvedev uttered the phrase about the presence of Russian interests in the
vinaigrette Syrian problems. I think that the Syrian crisis has turned up, as
well as possible, by the way, to fish in troubled waters.
I must say
the political situation in Syria is very complicated indeed. In the civil war
in Syria will be typed almost a dozen warring parties differing political and
ethnic lines. Of these, the principal, clearly identify possible supporters of
Assad (Arab Alawites), secular opposition (Arabs, Turkmens), Kurds, Islamists
(LIH) and Turkmen (same Turks).
The beginning of
the crisis put come down, finally, and to Syria's "Arab Spring".
Dictator Assad appeared the opposition, demanding democratic reforms. The
dictator acted in a dictatorial, - instead of dialogue rather harshly crack
down on political opponents, which is nothing to do but to take up arms. The
country began a civil war, against which, due to the weakening of the central
government, there was a tendency of separatism among the Kurds, compactly
living in the north-east and therefore in Turks living in the north-western
part of Syria. Ethnic bomb was planted by the British and the French after
World War I when redrawing the boundaries of the defunct Ottoman Empire, not
really ignoring the ethnic composition of the population living there. The main
principle that guided the winners was "Delhi and conquer."
Unprecedented active Western interference in the Middle East region, begun by
amateur W. Bush policy and continuing to this day, people made life unbearable
in the region. Hence, the problem of refugees, a million streams rushed to
their founders, responsible in the past for the bloody era of the Crusades, two
world wars and now a new intervention in the Middle East region. Is it so
difficult to understand that democracy can not bring on the bayonets of the
marines, it's like entering the house of the Jew, and to present as a gift to
roast a pig. The people should not tamper ripe for the adoption of democracy,
as happened in Turkey. A striking example is not ready for democracy
demonstrated by the Russian people, who tasted the taste of democracy, he
rejected it by returning to the totalitarian regime of government. Elections,
parliament (the Duma), - all this is a profanation of pure water, and it was
all under the communist regime, which was issued for the form of true
democracy. Today, Putin has called a regime of sovereign democracy, that is
necessary to understand democracy for the sovereign, for which the Russian
people are not denotes the soul in it. He returned to the people so beloved empire,
without which the Russian people at all was nearly lost.
Putin clearly
overestimated the economic possibilities of Russia starts a war with Ukraine,
and certainly did not expect that sanctions and falling oil prices will affect
so detrimental to the state of the economy. Putin has destroyed the free market
in Russia and seemed to be just right to sell off state-owned enterprises, but
the question is, who will buy them? To then, if Russia will creep out their
newly nationalized. Fools do not. Its oligarchs would not give dollars for rubles
and, of course, the state will not buy. Maybe he thought he could blackmail the
gas to Europe, as once the Ukraine, but it is the export of gas to date the
only reliable source of revenue and likely Europe has a great opportunity to
blackmail Russia, abandoning the Russian gas. Realizing at last, in what abyss
rolls Russia, Putin did not even know who to offer gas and is worn with a gas
pipe from one country to another, but to no avail. Hope for China is illusory,
there is the economy is experiencing a recession, especially since China
already buys gas from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Cover with a copper basin
and gas project "South Stream", because of the conflict with Turkey.
Here we come to the traditionally important for Russia to the Turkish issue,
and what is needed to Putin Syria.
Perhaps there is no more
important strategic point on the Earth than the territory of Turkey, located at
the junction of Europe and Asia. For the possession of this important
geopolitically territory fought many empires including, as I mentioned, and the
Russian Empire. And after a lull Moscow again fixed her eyes on Turkey.
However, if earlier dominated by expansionist Russia, but now in the foreground
purely economic problem, threatening the collapse of the new empire. The fact
that Turkey is becoming a hub of hydrocarbons from the Caspian basin and the
Persian Gulf. There is a lot of gas transport projects to Europe via Turkey,
bypassing Russia. Construction of one of them, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline
(TANAP) to be completed in 2018, that put an end to the monopoly of Russian gas
delivery to the EU. To this pipeline will connect Iran in the future.
Here lies the Russian involvement in the
Syrian crisis. Syrian-Turkish border has a length of 822 km. In the area
adjacent to the border Syrian territory inhabited by the Turks and the Kurds.
The Kurds in the Middle East is very spread out and in terms of the creation of
their state claim to a vast area that includes part of the Syrian territories,
Turkey and Iraq. It should be noted that on the same territory claimed by both
the Nazis from Armenian Dashnaktsutyun party, which in the years of the First World
War, with the support of Russia, waged a military mutiny, having started the
ethnic cleansing under the Great Armenia, cutting both Turkish and Kurdish
population. In connection with this interesting fact: an uprising in Turkey in
1927, the Kurds declared the Kurdish Republic of Ararat.
http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/1612511 Kurds Stalin hoped to use in case
of war with Turkey. Today, Russia's goal, taking advantage of the civil war in
Syria to destabilize the entire region, adjacent to Turkey. In this regard, the
rate on the Kurds, who are constantly seeping through the Turkish border to
commit terrorist acts, quite reasonable, because it threatened the security
becomes a trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and the future gas pipeline from the
Gulf. Putin has repeatedly tried to cut the pipeline "Baku - Tbilisi -
Erzurum" by attacking Georgia in 2008.
The Kremlin's true there
is another option to avoid a competitor for transporting gas to Europe, is to
attack Azerbaijan, which not only produces oil and gas, but will in the future
transit hub for gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. No wonder the
Russian Caspian Flotilla has significantly strengthened with new frigates,
which was not even in the days of the Cold War. This is a clear demonstration
of the military threat to the Caspian countries, former colonies of Russia.
Again, how can we not recall Putin regrets the collapse of the Soviet Union,
and they unleashed the war in Ukraine. There is no guarantee that in Baku and
Turkmenbashi appear "green men". This is why Putin has cultivated
since the days of the Chechen war, the legend of international Islamic
terrorism, which is at the origin of the Kremlin. And the Petersburg Chekists
bully Putin is no stranger to blow up a couple of houses in Tashkent or Almaty,
presenting it the work of Islamists from Islamic State, and Russian soldiers at
the time showed up to protect the residents from non-existent terrorists. And
then, you know, "a voluntary expression of the will", "desire to
join the people", and of other such traditional nesusvetitsa.
For good reason
intimidate Putin 'expansion in Russia and the CIS militants in Syria is open
plan. " (Http://ria.ru/syria/20160220/1377942415.html) Well, not nonsense!
However, Putin is a liar known (2).
But his words about the appropriate actions
of the Russian army: "Our armed forces must always be ready to respond
quickly and adequately to potential threats, stop any provocation and
aggressive actions." (Https://russian.rt.com/article/149820)
Particularly note that we
are talking about the response to the potential threat. So Putin is optionally always
find in every Muslim country on the periphery of Russia.
By placing the air force
of Syria, Putin immediately decided to test Turkey's reaction to the
provocative actions if Erdogan dare to express, to put it mildly, lack of
respect for a mighty empire, had just seized the Crimea, and chop off the fifth
part of Ukraine. Ankara twice to no avail expressed a note of protest about the
violation of Turkish airspace, Putin decided that Turkey, fear of
confrontation, already keeps a low profile. However, the third time the Russian
SU-24 bomber was shot down. Russian received a lesson, after which the pilots
no longer make mistakes as it tried to present was Moscow. Apparently Putin
this turn of events was a complete surprise that he foolishly blurted out
anti-Turkish sanctions and importantly has come under question, so important
for the Russian "South Stream". Honestly, I have a suspicion that
Turkey did not want to implement this project and haggling about the price of
gas, while pulling the end of the pipe laying on the TANAP project, that is
what he wants the EU - Russian gas monopoly destruction. With the introduction
of TANAP need for the "South Stream" will disappear altogether.
It looks like the
economic collapse of Russia is inevitable. Putin, like a beast, rushing in he
himself constructed the cell in such a situation of agonizing Russia can expect
any trouble, right up to nuclear war. As if there was not, but Erdogan will
have to be prepared for a war with Russia, which will fight the hands of
Armenia and the Kurds. Armenia with the dream of creating a "Greater
Armenia" from sea to sea just waiting for a visual signal of the Kremlin,
to renew the war with Azerbaijan. Do not exclude the probability of inclusion
in the mess and Iran as a strategic ally of Russia (3). To counter the
aggression of the Armenian armed to the teeth, Turkey will introduce troops in
Azerbaijan, as it was in 1918, when the Armenians raising mutiny, seized Baku
and a number of towns and villages of Azerbaijan. Undoubtedly, hostilities will
begin along the Armenian-Turkish border. Thus, the Caucasus could become a
blazing fire that would exclude the possibility of transporting hydrocarbon
from the Caspian region to Europe bypassing Russia. Erdogan is necessary to
inform the world community about the serious threats to peace on the part of
Russia and NATO to develop a plan of action in the event of such an outcome of
events. On the other hand all the Turkic countries should show solidarity and
present a united front in defense of Turkey and Azerbaijan, because they will
be the next victim of Putin's Russia.
1. International terrorism and its
interested parties. http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/1904.html ,
https://alikbahshi.blogspot.com/2026/04/international-terrorism-and-its.html
2. Empire of Lies and its chief liar.
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/22317.html ,
https://alikbahshi.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-empire-of-lies-and-its-chief-liar.html
3. Armenia and Moscow-Tehran axis.
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/1347.html ,
https://alikbahshi.blogspot.com/2026/09/armenia-and-moscow-tehran-axis.html
02.27.16.
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