Alik Bakhshi
What happens if …
For more than a month now, Israel has been waging a
brutal war with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The political situation in
the Middle East is tense, but no Arab country wants to get involved in a war
with Israel, with the exception of Yemen, which declared war on Israel,
believing that this would encourage countries neighboring Israel to follow. The
most aggressive anti-Israel rhetoric comes from Iran and the pro-Iranian
organization Hezbollah. True, Iran stated that it would respond to Israel if it
attacked. It is clear that now is not the time to start a war with Iran. But
the question is how Iran will behave if Hezbollah clashes with Israel, this
means an inevitable war between Israel and Lebanon, and possibly Syria because
Hezbollah is also present in Syria. Still, it is unlikely that Iran will
directly involve itself in war. And there are reasons for this that are very
dangerous for Iran, which is well understood in Tehran.
The fact is that the threats emanating towards
Israel are needed by Iran to gain authority in the Islamic world, and not
concern for the fate of the Arabs, in this case Palestine. Iran itself fought
with the Arabs of Iraq for 8 years, and relations with Saudi Arabia are far
from friendly, but it was the Arabs who bestowed Islam on Iran, thanks to which
power ended up in the hands of religious fanatics. It should be noted that
Iran has no relations at all with all the countries surrounding it, perhaps
excluding Armenia. And in this regard, Iran is alone. From the point of view of
the state structure, Iran is close to the totalitarian regimes of Russia and
North Korea, however, neither Moscow nor Pyongyang will definitely help Iran in
the war with Israel. And given the fact that America will definitely intervene,
it is unlikely that the Tehran ayatollahs will risk losing their power, since
military defeat is beyond doubt. Iran will have to defend itself from three
sides: from the West by Israel and the US 6th Fleet, from the South (Persian
Gulf) Iran will be attacked by the US 5th Fleet, and from the North by the
Israeli air force based in Azerbaijan. If Iran attacks Azerbaijan in response,
then it will also have to deal with Turkey as a country linked by a strategic
alliance with Azerbaijan.
It is very likely that in the event of defeat, which is without options, the regime of Tehran obscurantists will fall. Moreover, it is possible that Southern Azerbaijan will reunite with Azerbaijan (1,2) and then the Zangezur corridor will lose its relevance. Tehran understands all this very well, so fears of an Iranian attack on Israel are in vain.
1. Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/13967.html
2. Political collisions and the fate of Azerbaijan.
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